/nUpcoming and Recent Decays and Re-entries - eventually air drag, gravity or retro-fire mean that a spacecraft or satellite is no longer able to stay in orbit. It re-enters the atmosphere to be destroyed or make a safe landing.
Zarya - Soviet, Russian and International Spaceflight
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Launches and Orbital Operations


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2019 Nov 22
Friday, Day 326

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Feeling the Heat!

Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.

Most re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for a landing.

NOTES - Names used on this page are as used by Space-Track rather than the more-descriptive ones in zarya.info's tables. Dates and times are UTC.


Anticipated Re-entries

Below are re-entries expected over the next few weeks. The table includes only natural re-entries of satellites and rocket bodies. It excludes debris items and planned events like a Soyuz spacecraft returning from the ISS.

Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the 60-day decay prediction messages that are updated each week on Thursday at about 01:00 UTC but some are extracted from TIP Messages. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is in the actual re-entry list further down the page.

Cat No Designation Name (SpaceTrack) Predicted
Date
Prediction
Issued
39068    2013-003ASTSAT 2C2019 Nov 122019 Nov 11
41938    2017-004BATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B2019 Nov 192019 Nov 16
44778    2019-075BKZ-1A R/B2019 Nov 202019 Nov 17
29260    2006-030ACOSMOS 24222019 Nov 232019 Nov 13
42711    1998-067LSALTAIR PATHFINDER2019 Nov 262019 Nov 13
36591    2010-024BCZ-3C R/B2019 Nov 272019 Nov 13
43242    2018-027BGSLV R/B2019 Dec 42019 Nov 13
43540    2018-057BCZ-3A R/B2019 Dec 52019 Nov 13
9850    1977-010ESL-6 R/B(2)2019 Dec 92019 Nov 13
26476    2000-048ADM-F32019 Dec 302019 Nov 13
32477    2008-002BPSLV R/B2020 Jan 32019 Nov 13
9829    1977-010AMOLNIYA 2-172020 Jan 42019 Nov 13


TIP Messages may already have appeared but their publication is not routine. TIP Messages are more up to date and more precise than entries in the table above and take precedence over them. The list is updated frequently.

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Cat No Designation Name (Space-Track) Estimated
Date & Time
Window TIP Message
Issued
44778  2019 Nov 20 03:10±60 minutes2019 Nov 19 21:12
44778  2019 Nov 20 00:22±600 minutes2019 Nov 17 23:59
44778  2019 Nov 20 01:54±900 minutes2019 Nov 17 01:24
44778  2019 Nov 20 09:27±1200 minutes2019 Nov 16 09:28


Recent Re-entries

This table lists major re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. Information is provided by Space-Track and the list is updated frequently.

Cat No Designation Name (SpaceTrack) Actual
Date
39068   2013-003ASTSAT 2C2019 Nov 13
44702   2019-071BANTARES R/B2019 Nov 7
44546   2019-062AHTV-82019 Nov 3
39392   2013-064NSENSE SV22019 Oct 28
43709   2018-093DCZ-3B R/B2019 Oct 28
44338   2019-035BCZ-3B R/B2019 Oct 22
42910   1998-067MZTOMSK-TPU 1202019 Oct 20


If a TIP Message was issued after re-entry, it is listed below. Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in the Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet moved from the 'Anticipated' list at the top of this page.

Where the 'Window' is a very small number of minutes, it indicates that the satellite may have been transmitting radio signals and was being tracked at the time it was destroyed, or that the fireball was observed and reported.

Cat No Designation Name (Space-Track) Estimated
Date & Time
Window TIP Message
Issued
38252  2012-018CCZ-3B DEB2019 Nov 17 21:25±12 minutes2019 Nov 17 23:26
44778  2019-075BKZ-1A R/B2019 Nov 20 03:29±23 minutes2019 Nov 20 10:40


Note on TIP Messages

Close to re-entry time for many items, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the 'TIP' acronym is lost in history but SpaceTrack has made a guess at "Tracking and Impact Prediction".

”Time and Impact Prediction” is also more than possible.

TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window) that is also part of the message. In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.


Page date - 2019 Nov 22

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